The Nifty Index has done a positive close taking well-expected support at 40WEMA. The weekly candle closed in green, leaving an impression that the lower levels are arrested now. Weekly RSI is turned from over-sold to a slightly buy momentum. We need a further conformation on the level up towards 17500, which is possible only above 17250, a very crucial resistance in this expiry week. There is strong participation from Metals, IT, and FMCG, but this is not enough to bring a sharp move unless Banking stops falling. We expect the trend to be Positive and the momentum is lacking. The structure could be dragging or time-consuming going by the fact that it’s a Holiday Week. We expect the Nifty to see some ups and downs within this week but over trend looks Bullish. 16650- 17250 is a tight range, and the break of these levels brings one-directional momentum, most probably on the upside towards 17500 and 18140.
Nifty Bank has failed to close above its 40WEMA which is placed at 35500. Unless it is a strong close above these levels, we do not expect a positive momentum. There is a clear-cut divergence existing between Nifty and Banknifty. Going by the structure, the Index could be volatile compared to other indices. 34000 is well protected for time being, but that’s not sufficient. We should see a close above 35500 and then 36100 eventually in order to confirm the fall is over. For now, 34250 and 35500 are the levels within which the Index has a limited scope of the one-way move, but most probably it remains sideways unless there is a sharp bounce from the current levels.
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