Getting into the Budget

Getting into the Budget

We would like to focus on what we see in Markets rather than talking about expectations and analysis. Whatever we expect, many a time goes wrong as we all know. There are multiple platforms that target each one of you with so-called expert predictions on markets.

As far as studies are concerned, we would like to stick to what we see on charts. That is our philosophy.

The following is the weekly Nifty chart which is in good shape of bottom reversal. It was in the last week of September 2020 the Index has retraced back to 40 WEMA closer to 10800 levels. Later in the last week of December 2021, the Index has once again taken support at 16400, and from there 2000 points of the rally we have seen. Going by the historical supports, we would like to believe that the Index is once again bottoming out closer to 16600. The lower levels are at 16800-16600 and thereby the Index probably finishes its bottom. The much-anticipated Budget22 is a major event and thereby the markets are getting into the Budget22 with light positions, which is a good sign.

Following the rules of averages, momentum, and price patterns, we would like to be bullish post the Budget with 16600 being our crucial support on a closing basis. Volatility should be taken care of in the next 2-3 days and then possibly the markets may build on the upside. No change in the trend on the markets till the Index holds 16400.

On the Banknifty weekly, the support is at 35940. Above these levels, we would like to have a bias on the up side towards 42000 and 46000. Till the Index is above channel support and crucial supports at 36000, there is no major change in the long-term trend. Holding on to these levels – 36000- 34000 is very important for the bulls to take charge on a much bigger upside, keeping the Budget in mind.

This could be a much more volatile week and so the Index can actually give false breakouts on daily closes. So, we ignore the whipsaws and then come back weekly in order to understand the next trend and momentum. Until then we are positioned ourselves bullish on the Index.


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